Whistling Past the Graveyard

Trump took a beating in last night’s debate, but that’s to be expected at this point. Rubio charged that Trump had hired foreign workers in Florida; he shot back that he was the only one on stage who had ever hired anyone, i.e., created jobs. Not exactly responsive to the allegation, but telling nonetheless. My guess is, it won’t matter.

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/donald-trump-had-a-rough-night-will-it-matter-062332029.html

Blog owner’s introduction to what follows: as noted in passing yesterday, The Daily Donald is not simply a vehicle for my ideas and musings. It is a chronicle of our present moment on which you will find a plurality of opinions — some at the other end of links and some as stand-alone articles.

In that light I present this piece (it’s two pieces, actually) by one of my South Carolina friends and acquaintances, Dean Allen.

Just to note, barring something unexpected or truly dramatic, we will not be posting on Saturdays and Sundays. On Monday, we will hear from Dr. Ron Paul, who does not support Donald Trump.

Whistling Past the Graveyard

by Dean Allen (written 21 February)

Donald J. Trump opened a man sized can of whoop-ass yesterday in South Carolina! All of everyone's theories of why Trump cannot get the nomination just went out the window.

Now the talking heads on TV, the spin doctors for the losing candidates, and all the career politicians endorsing losers, are busy concocting theories to put a good face on their losing campaigns. This Sunday morning, they fill the airwaves with long shot theories as to how, if several consecutive miracles were to happen, they would have a "way forward."

We have a saying here in the old South; we call such nonsense whistling past the graveyard. The theories all start off, if all the other losers were to just drop out [unlikely] and if all their votes went to challenger X [even more unlikely], then challenger X would have more votes than Donald Trump.

I have been involved in politics for fifty years. I have managed SUCCESSFUL campaigns, I have WON three elections when it was my name on the ballot. I am a graduate of a half dozen campaign management schools, including several by the Leadership Institute in Washington, DC, and one by the RNC that was taught by the legendary Evelyn McPhail. Evelyn was a long serving member of the Republican National Committee from Mississippi who was as conservative as her good friend Ronald Reagan, and who was also passionate about training our candidates in the "nuts & bolts" of how political campaigns are won. She literally wrote the book on the subject.

In my expert opinion, all the whistling past the graveyard in the world simply will not get any other Republican candidate to 1,237 committed delegates before Donald Trump gets to that magic number.

Here is a big dose of reality for all those "what if" theories from losers. First of all, whether looking at undecided voters before an election, or the supporters of a candidate who just dropped out of a multi-candidate field, slightly more than half of them ALWAYS break for the front runner. That is simply a political fact of life. About 15% of the supporters of a losing candidate were really committed to that losing candidate. Those fanatical supporters of the defeated candidate do not go to your candidate in the next 50 primaries. They sit home and pout.

There is a simple fact, if you are going to win the nomination, you MUST beat Donald Trump, and you must do it before March 15th. After March 15th there are no RNC rules against winner-take-all delegate allocations. Trump has only to continue to get pluralities in order to scoop up all the delegates in every primary after March 15th.

No Republican candidate who has won primaries in BOTH New Hampshire, and South Carolina, has ever gone on to lose the Republican nomination for president. It is all but certain Donald Trump became our nominee last night. It is now time to quit whistling past the graveyard, and start unifying the Grand Old Party around our 2016 standard bearer, Donald Trump.

(Also from Dean Allen)

I have written extensively about Mr. Trump's executive experience, stance on critical issues, and why I believe he will be a great president and will help us make America great again.

I have one other reason for supporting Donald J. Trump. I correctly predicted that both John McCain, and Mitt Romney would lose the general elections in which they ran. I supported both men once they became our nominees, but I also knew they would lose.

I understand what it takes for any Republican to win a general election. In fact, I just finished writing a book on that subject that was published in January of this year. In my book, SUICIDE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, I point out why moderate nominees lose elections, and how Republicans can win again.

Ronald Reagan said we win when we "Raise a bold standard, with no pale pastels." He knew what he was talking about. Reagan won landslides twice. I was proud to run his GOTV operation in Galveston County, Texas in both 1980 and 1984. We did not just carry Texas, we carried Galveston County, an organized labor stronghold.

Reagan understood two things about presidential elections that are necessary to win. First of all, you must lay out that bold vision that will fire up our base and turn them out on Election Day. In 2016, nobody is doing any better job of that than Donald J. Trump. His rallies are huge and they draw a cross section of America. Trump supporters are dedicated, even to the point of being fanatical about supporting Mr. Trump.

Ronald Reagan knew one other thing was vitally necessary for Republicans to win a presidential election. Reagan ran a "50 state" campaign for the presidency. Reagan was the last Republican to make a serious effort in each of the 50 states. Why is this important?

Other Republicans over the last 30 years have written off states like New York, California, and Illinois, as too liberal to even contest. This strategy is a serious mistake. When we give all those electoral votes to the Democrat nominee, it becomes almost impossible for any Republican to get to 270 electoral votes. It also means the Democrats do not have to defend those states. They do not have to buy TV commercials in incredibly expensive markets like New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles. That frees up millions of dollars the Democrat Party can pour into so called swing states. Places like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia, just to mention a few.

One reason we have written off New York and California is because running competitive campaigns there is incredibly expensive. Donald Trump has enough money to run competitive campaigns in all 50 states, forcing the Democrats to defend every "blue" state with scarce financial resources.

Donald Trump can, and will, carry the state of New York. Upstate New York is conservative. New York City has been the problem for past Republicans. Trump will be different because he has built much of New York City, loves the city, and has employed tens of thousands of New Yorkers in his many businesses there. Donald J. Trump WILL carry the state of New York. That is the proverbial game changer.

Republicans have written off California in the past. This was done in spite of the fact Californians have passed numerous state wide ballot initiatives that are very conservative. Californians have voted against homosexual marriage, against extending welfare benefits to illegal aliens, and against raising property taxes. The fact is, when given the opportunity, a majority of the voters in California still support the ideals in the GOP platform.

When our presidential nominee "writes-off" a state there is another disadvantage. It depresses Republican voter turnout in those states. Why is that critically important? Without turning out the GOP base in those states, it gets much harder to elect, or re-elect, Republicans to the US House and Senate, as well as all the down-the-ballot races. McCain and Romney did not just lose the White House, they took down a lot of other great Republican candidates running for local and state wide offices all across America. President Trump is going to have long coat-tails, even in places like New York, and California.

Every one of the sixteen Republicans who ran for president this year would be a better president that the eventual nominee of the Democrat Party.

Only Donald J. Trump has the ability to win a general election. Unless we win, the best platform in history is meaningless. Trump has said "America does not win any more." He also said "When I am president, America will win again." You have the opportunity this coming Saturday to start America winning again. You and I can re-ignite the Reagan Revolution starting right here in the Palmetto State. Join Team Trump and make the win in South Carolina even GREATER.

______________________________________________

DEAN ALLEN is a Vietnam Veteran; he has been active in the leadership of civic, fraternal, and Veterans organizations for four decades; and he is the author of several books on business, history, and politics. His most recent book, just published, is SUICIDE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY (Renaissance Revolution Press, 2016). DEAN ALLEN is a candidate for Republican National Committeeman in South Carolina.

Vote Dean Allen

votedeanallen.com

Lord permitting, we'll be back Monday! Oh, and a friend and I will be improving this blog's appearance soon! -SY